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Well I’m sure you don’t need me to remind you that it was a very
difficult end to the summer for us with our Horse Racing Best
Bets & Sports Information. And, needless to say, the bookmakers
managed to claw back a proportion of the
profits
we have built up this year.
Our horse racing best bets did make a profit of almost 5 points in
September which followed a small 1 point loss in August. But our
sports information was way below standard which meant the racing
profits were totally wiped out and then some!
It’s ironic really because, as long standing members know, our
sports information has provided us with some spectacular winning
bets throughout the year and have contributed massively to our
overall profits. Nevertheless, I’m afraid there is no getting away
from their poor performance in recent weeks.
However, long standing members, although naturally disappointed,
will have been able to take those poor results very much in their
stride because, even after deducting all our recent losses, our
profits for the year
still stand at almost 124 points.
To put those profits into perspective, it’s worth pointing out that
the best performing tipster in the Racing-Index proofing table
produced less than 34 points profit during the same period.
Anyway, I’m confident we will soon get back to our normal winning
ways and build on our profits before the end of the year. Remember,
we bounced back from our last bad spell in May with massive profits
in June!
Our Horse Racing System Bets & Football Singles made a
profit in both August and
September when the betting bank grew by just over 13%. And it would
have grew by a lot more had it not been for the two shortest priced
selections both losing!
Anyway, in total there were 17 bets of which 12 won to give a strike
rate of just over 70%. As usual the vast majority of winners were
odds-on but, nevertheless, the overall profits were excellent
considering this is a very low risk staking strategy.
In fact, judging from the feedback I have received, a lot of you
seem to think that staking just 7% of the betting bank is far too
cautious. And, after analysing our past results, I agree. Therefore,
I recommend that from now on you increase your stake to 10% of your
betting bank on each selection. This will significantly increase
your profit potential without increasing the risk factor to any
great extent.
Now don’t expect to get rich by Christmas with this strategy! It
should be viewed as a fairly long term staking plan. For example,
our betting bank increased by just over 13% in August/September
betting to 7% stakes but to 10% stakes it would have increased by
almost 19%. So, if those results were maintained, a £1,000 starting
bank would grow to almost £8,000 in two years and to a life changing
£60,000+ in approximately four years!
Obviously those figures assume you don’t withdraw any of your
profits each month which, in reality, is unrealistic. Most people
would be tempted to take some of their profits once the stakes got
hairy! Still, I’m sure you can see the potential.
Even if you decide to withdraw half your profits each month, your
betting bank could still build up into a nice little nest egg in a
few years time. And, based on our past results, I am very
optimistic!
I have analysed the results since the start of January 2006 until
the end of September 2007. In that time there have been a total of
185 selections of which 131 won giving a strike rate of just short
of 71%. The longest losing run was 5 and the longest winning run was
13.
In those 21 months, a £1,000 betting bank grew to just over £4,300.
Obviously, there were a lot of ups and downs and it certainly wasn’t
all plain sailing! In fact, the betting bank fell by almost 50%
early in January 2006 following 5 consecutive losers!
So, effectively, the betting bank grew to £4,300 from a starting
balance of little more than £500 on January 10th 2006. But let’s not
manipulate the figures! It’s reassuring to know that even after a
very poor start, this staking strategy is powerful enough to produce
excellent long term profits.
So, based on the full results from January 1st 2006, the betting
bank would not reach £8,000 in two years as it would based purely on
our short term results in August/September this year. It would take
an extra 6 months to get to that figure. And to reach the life
changing £60,000+ would take just under 5 years. Still very
impressive, I’m sure you’ll agree!
And don’t forget, those profits are based on betting at starting
price. But, as you know, it’s now impossible not to beat the SP! For
example,
NPbet settle all SP bets at the next best price. And
Betfair prices are consistently around 20% better than the returned
SP.
The
bookmakers
have certainly had the best of things so far this season with
regards to our Weekend Football Fixed Odds Forecasts.
In fact, apart from a couple of small wins with our ‘double results’
in August and a small return from our ‘best 5 aways’ in September,
our forecasts have been very disappointing.
Nevertheless, we are still in
profit
for the year and it is still early in the new season so, provided
you have set up your betting bank correctly, there is certainly no
need to panic!
As the form starts to settle down, I’m confident our software
package will again start to forecast results much more accurately.
Then a couple of decent wins will easily recover our recent losses.
In the meantime there is no need to adjust your staking levels
provided you are betting to the stakes recommended in the Operations
Manual
However, as mentioned in
last month’s newsletter, I know a lot of
members bet to stakes far higher than is recommended. Therefore, if
this applies to you then you should lower your stakes to the levels
we recommend in the manual.
As you know our Warm Horses don’t form part of our business
plan so are not included in our overall profit figures. However, I
know a lot of you make use of them in various ways.
Some members use them together with information received from
elsewhere so they can decide on their own selections for the day.
Others use them in order to have interest bets and there is
certainly nothing wrong with that provided you don’t use the money
you have set aside for your serious betting banks.
Anyway, those of you who do follow our warm horses were rewarded
with a fair few winners in August/September. One long standing
member emailed me to say he had a double on the only two bets we
advised on August 8th. Both won, Ajaan at 5/1 and Viva Volta at 7/2,
to give him a 26/1 winning double!
He takes his betting very seriously and normally follows our advice
to the letter so I was surprised that he had decided to have a
double. As you know, we rarely, if ever, advise multiple bets on
horse racing. Anyway, he was obviously delighted his rare fun bet
paid off! Well done, Andy!
He never got in touch to let me know if he repeated the feat on
September 9th when once again the only two bets we advised for the
day both won! This time the odds were even better! Red Echo won at
12/1 and Le Corvee won at 5/1 so a double would have paid a massive
77/1.
Other warm horses in August/September included Phantom Whisper - Won
8/1, Dansili Dancer - Won 15/2, Don’t Panic - Won 7/1, Webbow - Won
11/2, Full On - Won 11/2 etc. etc.
Well that’s all for now so until next time, enjoy your sport and
stay lucky!
Dave
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