Minimum Bet Guarantee

As you may already know, some bookmakers have started to lay to lose a minimum of 500 to all customers (even previously restricted ones) on some, and in a few cases all, horse racing markets.

This is, of course, very welcome news to the multitude of punters who have had their accounts unfairly closed or severely restricted. However, do be warned, it has become obvious that this offer is far from being genuine with some bookmakers.

Betvictor, for example, often have shorter odds in their Guaranteed market to those on offer in their Standard market. In fact, as you can see in the table below, out of 189 horses, 131 had shorter odds in the Guaranteed market! And, as a result, they are betting to a much higher overround in the Guaranteed market in just about every race!

Amazingly Betvictor are still getting praised for making this offer and have no doubt gained a large number of new customers as a result. Please don't be taken in. You will find it almost impossible to find any value in such markets and will almost certainly lose a lot of money in the long term.

Betvictor's Minimum Bet Guarantee is no more than a publicity stunt in my opinion and is extremely unfair to put it mildly!

Analysis of Betvictor's odds for the first 18 races on Sunday 11 November 2018
      Standard Market Guaranteed Market Horses
Time Meeting Runners Overround Avg per horse Overround Avg per horse Shorter
12.35 Navan 19 136.03% 1.90% 139.36% 2.07% 6
12.45 Sandown 9 116.56% 1.84% 123.59% 2.62% 7
12.55 Ffos Las 9 112.58% 1.40% 122.80% 2.53% 7
1.05 Navan 7 110.22% 1.46% 118.15% 2.59% 6
1.15 Sandown 10 112.43% 1.24% 122.14% 2.21% 8
1.25 Ffos Las 13 127.71% 2.13% 133.82% 2.60% 4
1.35 Navan 6 105.72% 0.95% 113.07% 2.18% 5
1.50 Sandown 14 118.02% 1.29% 133.54% 2.40% 12
2.00 Ffos Las 9 116.05% 1.78% 130.35% 3.37% 9
2.10 Navan 5 109.19% 1.84% 116.18% 3.24% 4
2.20 Sandown 4 109.31% 2.33% 109.31% 2.33% 0
2.30 Ffos Las 14 120.26% 1.45% 140.03% 2.86% 12
2.40 Navan 9 112.37% 1.37% 121.45% 2.38% 7
2.55 Sandown 20 129.50% 1.48% 138.55% 1.93% 13
3.05 Ffos Las 7 118.63% 2.66% 124.45% 3.49% 3
3.15 Navan 14 122.10% 1.58% 134.39% 2.46% 11
3.25 Sandown 11 115.83% 1.44% 124.51% 2.23% 9
3.35 Ffos Las 9 118.49% 2.05% 131.28% 3.48% 8
               
    Averages: 117.28% 1.68% 126.50% 2.61%  

For those of you who don't understand the overround, quite simply it's the bookmaker's built in margin, which ensures they profit long term.

For example, if all horses in the 1.50 at Sandown were backed to return 100 to the punter, the total stakes in the Standard market would have been 118.02. The bookmaker would payout 100 on the winner and keep 18.02 in profit. That equates to a profit on turnover of 15.27% or 15.27 out of every 100 staked on the race. Not a bad earner for the bookmaker but at least it's fair (ish).

However, not content with that, Betvictor aim to fleece punters betting on the Guaranteed market to the tune of 25.12 for every 100 staked on the race! (133.54 would need to be staked by punters if all horses were backed to return 100 giving Betvictor a profit of 33.54, which equates to a profit on turnover of 25.12%). That's not even close to being fair!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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