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As you may already know, some
bookmakers have started to lay to lose a minimum of £500 to
all customers (even previously restricted ones) on
some, and in a few cases all, horse racing markets.
This is, of course, very welcome news to the multitude of
punters who have had their accounts unfairly closed or
severely restricted. However, do be warned, it has become
obvious that this offer is far from being genuine with some
bookmakers.
Betvictor, for example, often have shorter odds in their
Guaranteed market to those on offer in their Standard
market. In fact, as you can see in the table below, out of
189 horses, 131 had shorter odds in the Guaranteed market!
And, as a result, they are betting to a much higher
overround in the Guaranteed market in just about every race!
Amazingly Betvictor are still getting praised for making
this offer and have no doubt gained a large number of
new customers as a result. Please don't be taken in. You
will find it almost impossible to find any value in such
markets and will almost certainly lose a lot of money in the
long term.
Betvictor's Minimum Bet Guarantee is no more than a
publicity stunt in my opinion and is extremely unfair to put
it mildly!
Analysis of Betvictor's odds for the first 18 races on
Sunday 11 November 2018
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|
Standard |
Market |
Guaranteed |
Market |
Horses |
|
Time |
Meeting |
Runners |
Overround |
Avg per horse |
Overround |
Avg per horse |
Shorter |
|
12.35 |
Navan |
19 |
136.03% |
1.90% |
139.36% |
2.07% |
6 |
|
12.45 |
Sandown |
9 |
116.56% |
1.84% |
123.59% |
2.62% |
7 |
|
12.55 |
Ffos Las |
9 |
112.58% |
1.40% |
122.80% |
2.53% |
7 |
|
1.05 |
Navan |
7 |
110.22% |
1.46% |
118.15% |
2.59% |
6 |
|
1.15 |
Sandown |
10 |
112.43% |
1.24% |
122.14% |
2.21% |
8 |
|
1.25 |
Ffos Las |
13 |
127.71% |
2.13% |
133.82% |
2.60% |
4 |
|
1.35 |
Navan |
6 |
105.72% |
0.95% |
113.07% |
2.18% |
5 |
|
1.50 |
Sandown |
14 |
118.02% |
1.29% |
133.54% |
2.40% |
12 |
|
2.00 |
Ffos Las |
9 |
116.05% |
1.78% |
130.35% |
3.37% |
9 |
|
2.10 |
Navan |
5 |
109.19% |
1.84% |
116.18% |
3.24% |
4 |
|
2.20 |
Sandown |
4 |
109.31% |
2.33% |
109.31% |
2.33% |
0 |
|
2.30 |
Ffos Las |
14 |
120.26% |
1.45% |
140.03% |
2.86% |
12 |
|
2.40 |
Navan |
9 |
112.37% |
1.37% |
121.45% |
2.38% |
7 |
|
2.55 |
Sandown |
20 |
129.50% |
1.48% |
138.55% |
1.93% |
13 |
|
3.05 |
Ffos Las |
7 |
118.63% |
2.66% |
124.45% |
3.49% |
3 |
|
3.15 |
Navan |
14 |
122.10% |
1.58% |
134.39% |
2.46% |
11 |
|
3.25 |
Sandown |
11 |
115.83% |
1.44% |
124.51% |
2.23% |
9 |
|
3.35 |
Ffos Las |
9 |
118.49% |
2.05% |
131.28% |
3.48% |
8 |
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Averages: |
117.28% |
1.68% |
126.50% |
2.61% |
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For those of you who don't understand the overround, quite
simply it's the bookmaker's built in margin, which
ensures they profit long term.
For example, if all horses in the 1.50 at Sandown were
backed to return £100 to the punter, the total stakes in the
Standard market would have been £118.02. The bookmaker would
payout £100 on the winner and keep £18.02 in profit. That
equates to a profit on turnover of 15.27% or £15.27 out of
every £100 staked on the race. Not a bad earner for the
bookmaker but at least it's fair (ish).
However, not content with that, Betvictor aim to fleece
punters betting on the Guaranteed market to the tune of
£25.12 for every £100 staked on the race! (£133.54 would
need to be staked by punters if all horses were backed to
return £100 giving Betvictor a profit of £33.54, which
equates to a profit on turnover of 25.12%). That's not even
close to being fair!
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