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We started the New Year in fine style in January with
profits all
round!
The main part of our service, our Horse Racing Best Bets & Sports
Information, finished the month 13 points in profit!
Bets were few and far between as far as our horse racing best bets
were concerned with just 5 bets advised all month. Still, we did
manage a small one and a half points profit betting at starting
price. (Anyone taking the best early price won just on two and a
half points). Our sports information added a further eleven and a
half points. So all in all it was an excellent start to the year and
we are well on target to surpass last year’s final
profits
of some 135 points! (Our profits in January last year were slightly
less than this year at a little over 11 points).
It’s interesting to note that the bulk of our 13 points profit was
achieved from ‘near misses’ rather than winners! For example, Flower
Haven 2nd 11/1 - Sharp Jack 3rd 14/1 - Jerry Kelly (Sony Open) 3rd
75/1 - and Charl Schwartzel (Qatar Masters) 3rd 70/1 all made us a
nice profit from our each-way bets but with a little bit of luck we
would have won a small fortune! Still, luck will even itself out
over time and it won’t be long before we land a few massive priced
winners particularly as the busy, and traditionally highly
profitable, spring and summer months are fast approaching!
In any event we certainly can’t complain at making 13 points profit
in a very quiet January! And hopefully some of you ‘hedged’
in-running and gave your profits a healthy boost!
For example, Flower Haven went as short as 1.55 (just over 1/2) and
Charl Schwartzel went as low as 3.55 (just over 5/2) so trading out
on the exchanges to ensure a guaranteed profit win or lose was a
straightforward task.
A lot of members often email me to say they are unsure at what price
they should consider ‘hedging’. Well the answer is there is no hard
and fast rule. But obviously the price has to be short enough, in
comparison to the price you backed at, in order to make it
worthwhile.
Let’s use Charl Schwartzel as an example and assume you staked £50
each-way at 70/1. (Incidentally he was available at double those
odds on the
Betfair
before the tournament started). Anyway, for the purpose of this
example, let’s assume you took 70/1. The potential profit from the
win part of your bet was £3,500. Therefore, when his price shortened
to 15.0 (14/1) you could have considered hedging then because, at
that price, you could have recovered your £50 win stake by laying to
lose £700 (20% of your potential profits).
However, a better strategy would have been to simply monitor the
price until it started to drift considerably and then hedged.
Therefore you could have monitored the price until it reached its
low point of 3.55 and then hedged once it drifted back out to, say,
6.0 (5/1). Then you could have ‘sacrificed’ the same £700 of your
potential profits and recovered your £50 stake money plus another
£90 on top!
I appreciate that ‘hedging’ may seem a little confusing to some
members at first but it really is quite straightforward once you get
started. And the extra profits are well worth the effort!
The ‘Maximise Your Profits’ section of the Operations Manual has a
few more examples so have a read of it and if there is anything
you’re still not quite sure about then drop me an email.
Our Horse Racing System Bets & Football Singles made a small profit
in January despite a few shock results!
Liverpool failing to beat Wigan early in the month was a major
surprise! They traded as low as 1.07 (1/14) on Betfair when leading
1-0 with around 10 minutes to go but could only manage a 1-1 draw in
the end! And our last bet of the month, Boomtown, lost all chance
when bumping into the rail in the closing stages and was beaten into
2nd place.
Anyway, despite those set-backs, we still managed a strike rate of
just under 70% with 16 winners from 23 bets and our betting banks
increased by just over 4% if betting at starting price. Now that may
not seem much of an increase but it’s still enough to turn a
starting bank of £2,000 into more than £23,000.00 in just 5 years if
we achieved the same rate of growth every month!
And, of course, anyone who followed our ‘Maximise Your Profits’
advice saw their betting banks grow by a good deal more! For
example, anyone simply taking the best early price available managed
to increase their betting banks by more than 10%. And if that still
doesn’t seem like much then consider this: Maintaining the same rate
of growth every month and re-investing all your profits would turn a
starting bank of £2,000 into almost £68,000.00 in just 3 years! And
into an incredible £706,000.00 in less than 5 years!
Of course, in reality, it’s not going to happen like that! We will
have better months and we will have worse months. And we will also
spend a proportion of our profits along the way. But it does
illustrate what is possible over the medium to long term with this
very low risk staking strategy. And it certainly highlights just how
much extra profit can be made simply by beating the SP!
As you know, all our profits are calculated at starting price
because we feel that’s the fairest way to operate. But these days
getting a better price than SP is nothing more than a formality so
the profits we publish are the absolute minimum you should be
making.
For example, simply placing all your bets on
Betfair
would just about guarantee you beat the starting price every time.
Or you could bet with firms such as
NPbet
and
Canbet
who pay above the SP on every race every day. Alternatively, as the
prices on a high percentage of our selections do shorten, you could
bet with whoever is offering the best early price. A link to the
relevant bookmaker is provided in our daily emails. Firms such as
Bet365
and
Bet
Direct
even pay best odds guaranteed so you can’t possibly lose out!
We landed a few decent wins with our Weekend Football Fixed Odds
Forecasts in January and finished the month nicely in profit!
Our biggest return came from our ‘best 6 homes’ in the second week
of the month when we collected some 95 points with all six forecasts
correct! Our ‘best 5 aways’ also produced a nice return of almost 28
points in the same week despite one forecast losing.
In the final week of the month, all five ‘aways’ came up for us and
returned almost 59 points! We also had a couple of decent returns
with our ‘double results’ during the month so all in all it was an
excellent start to the year. And we can now look forward to building
on those profits in the final few months of the season!
Winners were thin on the ground as far as our Warm Horses
were concerned in January although we did have more than our fair
share of near misses!
Our biggest ‘hard luck’ story was when 20/1 chance Sudden Impulse
went down by a head early in the month. This one looked all over the
winner when making smooth headway from off the pace to close on the
leaders inside the final furlong but was just held on the line! A
week later, Kawagino ran a tremendous race at 33/1 but also had to
settle for the runners-up spot!
As you know our warm horses don’t form part of our business plan and
therefore are not included in our overall profit figures. As
explained in the Operations Manual, these bets are mainly used by
either our more experienced members, who like to analyse all the
information available before making their own decision as to what to
bet on, or by members who enjoy the buzz of having several bets a
day.
Nevertheless it’s still frustrating when things don’t go our way!
But, that said, anyone taking an early price and ‘hedging’
in-running will not have done too badly and one big priced winner
will more than repair any damage!
Well that’s all for now so until next time, enjoy your sport and
stay lucky!
Dave
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