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It was a very promising start to the year for us when our Horse
Racing Best Bets & Sports Information made very nice profits
of some 17 points in January/February. But, I’m sure you don’t need
me to remind you that it has been very much downhill since then! In fact,
to put it as mildly as possible, the results have been absolutely
diabolical!
We have had more than our fair share of 'near misses' in recent
weeks which, had they gone our way, our betting banks would be
looking a whole lot better. Jim Furyk losing by just one shot in the
CA Championship was particularly frustrating! The eventual winner,
Geoff Ogilvy, fluked a shot on the 13th green in the final round to
save par when a double bogey looked the most likely outcome. Add a
few easy putts missed by Furyk and we really can count ourselves
unlucky not to have landed a 50/1 winner!
A couple of weeks later, Alastair Forsyth’s name looked to be on the
trophy for the Portuguese Open when a brilliant birdie birdie finish
got him into a play-off. But it wasn’t to be and in the end we had
to settle for a 33/1 runner-up.
Just one of those golf bets winning would have put us back in profit
for the year. And if both had won we would be well in front!
However, 'near misses' don't pay the bills and, in any event, that
'bad luck' on the golf doesn't explain the poor horse racing results
in recent weeks!
Our contacts are more or less still the same and we are doing
virtually exactly the same as we have done successfully for many
years. So there is no obvious reason for our poor recent
performance.
I have been looking through our archives and we did have a similar
very poor run last spring/summer with our Best Bets & Sports
Information.
From 28 April 2007 until 17 June 2007 (seven long weeks), there were
a total of 42 bets given (Best Bets & Sports Information). From
those 42 bets we had just 7 winners (either won or profitable each
way bets). No fewer than 35 advised bets were outright losers! And
we lost some 19 points during that period!
However, we saw a complete turnaround in our fortunes in the last
couple of weeks of June and we finished the month some 45 points in
profits! And ended the year 135 points to the good!
At the time of writing (18 April 2008) our current bad run is also
into its seventh week and has so far cost us some 24 points! We did
recover in spectacular fashion last year without any changes being
made to our sources of information or our selection methods so
hopefully we can quickly do the same again! But I fully appreciate
that losing more than half a betting bank, particularly for new
members who haven’t got huge profits from last year to fall back on,
is a major worry!
We are looking at other sources of information which is common
practice anyway even during our good spells. I remember a few times
in the past a new source has saved the day for us by ending a losing
run. But, at the moment, there is nothing special to get excited
about so we are certainly not going to use a new source we are not
entirely happy with. So, for now, all our selections will be based
on the same criteria as in the past. A reduction in your staking
levels would be a good idea until there is a definite sign of a
return to form unless you have set aside additional funds from
previous profits.
Our Horse Racing System Bets &
Football Singles have also been struggling in recent weeks.
We have had a few decent winning runs but they have all come along
after a losing spell so we have yet to make any real headway. In
fact, we are currently on another losing run of 3 so we are again
playing catch-up!
Hopefully some of you are using ‘hedging’ techniques as explained in
the
Operations Manual and, if so, will be showing a very nice profit
despite the poor results.
For example, anyone hedging in-running on our latest loser, Bridge
Of Fermoy, would have made a huge profit. This one went off at 8/15
(from 4/5 early price) and traded at the minimum price of 1.01 on
Betfair before going down by a head!
I am currently analysing different staking strategies in an attempt
to improve the long term potential of these selections for those
members who are unable to ‘hedge’ in-running and will report my
findings in due course.
In the meantime, it’s clearly evident that taking an early price for
the horse racing selections is essential. More than 70% of all
system selections this year have shortened in price, some quite
drastically!
Our Weekend Football Fixed Odds Forecasts have also had a few
lean weeks recently but we are still nicely in profit for the year!
We had a couple of profitable weeks in March but we still finished
the month slightly behind. And although we did land 5 out of 6
‘Homes’ in the first week of April and 4 out of 5 ‘Aways’ the
following week, it is still a losing month for us so far. But there
is still time for us to land another big win before the end of the
season and boost our overall profits for the year!
As long term members will remember, we hit the Jackpot this time
last year with our ‘Double Results’ when, with all forecasts
correct, we collected a cool 3,200 points!
As usual, we will be covering the Australian football during the
summer months but, as in previous years, it’s unlikely the
bookmakers will be accepting bets on the double result.
Nevertheless, there will still be plenty of opportunities for us to
make a profit with our other forecasts!
Following a large number of requests from members in recent years,
we finally launched our new Laying Service a few weeks ago.
As you probably know, we analysed various laying methods over a
number of months with varying degrees of success until we finally
decided upon the strategy we are now using. We tested it behind the
scenes from the beginning of March and the results were truly
remarkable! Within three weeks the profits were a staggering 42
points with a profit achieved in 73 out of the 87 races covered! We
then put the selections on our website ‘live’ so all members could
monitor the progress. And by the end of March a further 11 points
profit was achieved making a total profit of 53 points in just one
month!
On the back of those results, the service was officially launched at
the start of April. Everything went well initially with a profit
made on each of the first three days but then the results took a
massive turn for the worse!
We did make it clear that we didn't expect the spectacular results
achieved in March to be maintained long term and we did advise a
cautious approach. But, judging from the emails received when we
were losing just 5 or 6 points, it seems most members had got
carried away with the initial success and were betting to
ridiculously high stakes that were totally out of proportion to
their betting banks!
In a way I can understand it because I must admit that after we put
the information ‘live’ online and kicked off with 15 consecutive
successful races I was beginning to think that recommending a 50
point betting bank was overly cautious myself! However, recent
results indicate that a 50 point bank is, in fact, the absolute
minimum that’s required!
I am confident that the Laying Service will prove to be very
profitable long term but, in the meantime, there are certainly a few
problems to overcome. In particular trying to balance our aim of
providing an uncomplicated service with the need to avoid laying at
bad value odds when a selection drifts in the betting or when
significant non-runners make ‘no bet’ the most sensible option.
For example, we had to send an email to all members advising them
not to lay a selection when no fewer than four horses were pulled
out of a race some six hours after we initially gave out the
selections. One of the non-runners was one of our lays so it meant
we were laying just one horse in the race instead of two. And to
make matters worse, that selection had drifted drastically and was
trading at 9.60 in what was now a five runner race! To proceed with
the original instructions to lay in such circumstances would have
been complete madness! As it happened, the horse lost but that
doesn’t alter the fact that going ahead with the lay would have been
ridiculous! In any event, as it had drifted drastically, everyone
who had backed it early in the afternoon were able to trade out to
secure a nice profit regardless of the result!
We will address the above issue and others in comprehensive
guidelines that will be published when more data is available. In
the meantime, referring to our
Frequently Asked Questions
page will answer any immediate queries you may have and also provide
you with some sensible advice.
All in all, it’s been a very difficult time all round for us lately
but we have had poor spells many times in the past. And we will
certainly have many more in the future! We have also enjoyed many
long winning runs over the years but a particularly poor spell like
the current one certainly emphasises just how important it is to set
up your betting banks with sufficient funds using only money you can
comfortably afford.
Well that’s all for now so until next time, when hopefully our
results will not make such depressing reading, enjoy your sport and
bet sensibly!
Dave
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