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I’m pleased to report that this
newsletter makes for much better reading than our
last one
as far as our results are concerned!
In fact, since our
last
newsletter was published, our Horse Racing Best
Bets & Sports Information have produced some spectacular winners
which have more than recovered all the losses sustained during our
prolonged losing spell in March and early April so we are once again
back in profit for the year!
Our road to recovery started on April 25th when Guns And Butter won
for us at 4/1. That was the start of a fantastic couple of weeks
which saw us amass more than 30 points profit by May 10th . And, of
course, anyone following our advice in the ‘Maximise Your Profits’
section of the Operations Manual won a good deal more!
Other winners included Keisha Kayleigh at 7/1, Cheery Cat at 16/1
and a massive priced winner on the golf when Peter Lawrie won the
Spanish Open for us at 66/1!
We only had a 1/4 point each-way on our golfer instead of our normal
1/2 point each-way which, I must admit, took a slight edge off my
celebrations for a while! But, despite the low stake, it was a
fantastic result for us and certainly well deserved after the many
massive priced near misses we’ve endured this year! For a while I
thought this was going to be yet another hard luck story after
Ignacio Garrido holed a monster putt on the final hole to force a
play-off.
I had hedged my bet by laying Lawrie at odds as short as 1.02 before
the play-off so, from a personal point of view, I stood to make a
massive profit regardless of the final result. But I know most of
you still don’t make the effort to hedge so I was obviously
delighted when Lawrie eventually secured victory at the second hole
of a dramatic/nerve racking play-off!
We looked to be well on our way to
landing another big priced golf winner a couple of weeks later when
our 33/1 tip Bradley Dredge led the Irish Open by one shot going
into the final round and went as short as 2.90 on
Betfair. But he had a
nightmare final round and finally finished just out of the frame.
Still, despite that disappointment, it’s been an excellent few weeks
for us and, with our poor patch now behind us, we can all look
forward to building on our profits during the summer!
It really does amaze me that so many
members don’t make any effort to enhance their profits. Ok, I know
other commitments can prevent you from hedging in-running but there
are so many other ways to significantly boost your profits with very
little effort at all. For instance, simply placing all your bets on
Betfair
would make a massive difference to your overall profits!
For example, the total profits achieved by our Horse Racing Best
Bets & Sports Information last year was £13,495.41. A tidy sum by
any standards! But did you know that using
Betfair,
and securing approximately 20% better odds, would have produced
profits of £20,570.33? That’s an extra £7,074.92 clear profit
for exactly the same stakes and exactly the same amount of ‘work’
placing the bets! You would, of course, have had to pay commission
of up to 5% on all winning markets but that would still have left
you with in excess of £5,000.00 more money in your bank account for
doing absolutely nothing extra!
Turning your back on that kind of easy money is the equivalent to an
office worker refusing a £5K a year pay rise from their employer
simply because it is conditional on them using a black pen instead
of their customary blue one!
Although our Best Bets & Sports
Information are now back on the winning track, I’m afraid the same
can’t be said about our Horse Racing System Bets & Football
Singles.
Although our losses are not too serious at just under 4 points on
the year if betting at SP (a slight profit if taking an early price
and/or using
Betfair),
it is still very frustrating. Unless you are hedging in-running that
is!
I’ve lost count of the number of system
bets that have traded at ridiculously short prices in the closing
stages only to get pipped on the post! Here are a few examples from
May…
Expensive Art 2nd after trading at 1.04, Yakimov 2nd after trading
at 1.07 and Lang Shining 2nd after trading at the minimum 1.01. At
those prices it goes without saying that hedging was very profitable
indeed!
As mentioned in
last
month’s newsletter, I am analysing different
staking strategies in an attempt to improve the long term
profitability of these selections for those of you who can’t hedge
in-running and I will make my recommendations shortly. In the
meantime, if you can’t hedge then make sure you either take an early
price or place your bets on
Betfair.
Please note that there will be no more football singles until the
new domestic season starts again in August so all bets in this
category will be horse racing system bets until then.
With the domestic season now over, our Weekend Football Fixed
Odds Forecasts will focus on the Australian leagues during the
summer.
Although we made a small loss in the final few weeks of the season,
we did land two decent ‘Trebles’ in the last couple of weeks of
April and also managed a small profit with our ‘Aways’ and ‘Double
Results’ on the last full week of the season to ensure we start our
Australian campaign in profit for the year overall.
As in previous years, it’s unlikely the bookmakers will be accepting
‘Double Result’ forecasts on the Australian football but we will be
providing forecasts for ‘Homes’, ‘Aways’ and ‘Trebles’ as normal.
After the disappointing run of results in April, our Laying
Service has shown definite signs of getting back to top form in
recent weeks.
The first week of May was a bit of a struggle and we lost some 9
points by the 7th. But we soon recovered those losses with an
excellent run of results which produced a profit of almost 17 points
in the following two weeks if laying at 20% above SP and after
deducting 5% commission. Anyone making the effort to lay at the
lowest possible price obviously won considerably more.
To improve your chances of laying at the best possible price, make
sure you check how the odds on the other exchanges, particularly
Betdaq,
compare with those on
Betfair.
Also monitor price movements for a while before placing your bets so
you can judge which way the market is going. If the odds are
shortening then wait before placing your bet. But if the odds are
drifting then you should place you bet as soon as possible.
I know not everyone has the time to monitor the markets for long
but, if you can, the extra profits will certainly make the effort
well worth your while!
Whatever you do, never automatically lay at the asking price! For
example, if our selection is available to lay at, say 4.00, you
should at the very least put up your lay at 3.95. You will be
pleasantly surprised at how many times your bet will be matched at
the lower price.
Judging from the number of emails I receive when a fairly big priced
lay wins, it’s obvious that a lot of members still don’t fully
appreciate that, because we are laying two horses in the one race, a
9/1 winning lay, for example, is not quite as bad as it seems.
In fact, on some occasions, it’s better for us if the bigger priced
selection wins. For example, on May 16th, Geordieland won at 13/2
so, at 20% above SP, we report it as a losing lay of 8.80 (almost
8/1). Now that is a fairly big price for a losing lay but we would
actually have lost more money if our other selection in the race had
won even though that was only 3/1.
As it turned out, because of the amount we staked, we lost just
£155.20 on the race which is the equivalent of laying at just over
6/4. Had the 3/1 shot won, we would have lost £226.60 which would
have been the equivalent of laying at just over 9/4.
At the end of the day, it’s the amount we stand to lose on a race
(our maximum liability) which is the crucial factor, not the actual
prices of each selection. For example, if we were to lay two
selections at 7/1 (8.00) each to £50 stakes then our maximum
liability would be £300 which is the equivalent of laying one
selection in the race at 3/1.
Followers of our Warm Horses have also had plenty to
celebrate in recent weeks with quite a few nice priced winners
including Cumae at 20/1, Full Victory at 12/1 (early price 16/1) and
Bold Argument at 15/2 (early price 10/1).
Incidentally, the best early price for Cumae was 16/1 but that was
available with
Bet365
and
BoyleSports
who both pay Best Odds Guaranteed so, because the price
drifted, they pay out at 20/1. Had the price shortened, to say 10/1,
they would have paid out at 16/1. See just how easy it is to
‘Maximise Your Profits’!
So, all in all, it’s been an excellent month or so since the last
rather depressing newsletter and, with our poor patch well and truly
behind us, we can now all look forward with supreme confidence to
what promises to be a very exciting and profitable summer!
Well that’s all for now so until next time, enjoy your sport and
stay lucky!
Dave
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